Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate: Developing Technology to Protect America

In response to a congressional mandate and in consultation with Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T), the National Academy conducted a review of S&T's effectiveness and efficiency in addressing homeland security needs. This review included a particular focus that identified any unnecessary duplication of effort, and opportunity costs arising from an emphasis on homeland security-related research. Under the direction of the National Academy Panel, the study team reviewed a wide variety of documents related to S&T and homeland security-related research in general. The team also conducted interviews with more than 200 individuals, including S&T officials and staff, officials from other DHS component agencies, other federal agencies engaged in homeland security-related research, and experts from outside government in science policy, homeland security-related research and other scientific fields.Key FindingsThe results of this effort indicated that S&T faces a significant challenge in marshaling the resources of multiple federal agencies to work together to develop a homeland security-related strategic plan for all agencies. Yet the importance of this role should not be underestimated. The very process of working across agencies to develop and align the federal homeland security research enterprise around a forward-focused plan is critical to ensuring that future efforts support a common vision and goals, and that the metrics by which to measure national progress, and make changes as needed, are in place

Black Hole Spectroscopy: Testing General Relativity through Gravitational Wave Observations

Assuming that general relativity is the correct theory of gravity in the strong field limit, can gravitational wave observations distinguish between black hole and other compact object sources? Alternatively, can gravitational wave observations provide a test of one of the fundamental predictions of general relativity? Here we describe a definitive test of the hypothesis that observations of damped, sinusoidal gravitational waves originated from a black hole or, alternatively, that nature respects the general relativistic no-hair theorem. For astrophysical black holes, which have a negligible charge-to-mass ratio, the black hole quasi-normal mode spectrum is characterized entirely by the black hole mass and angular momentum and is unique to black holes. In a different theory of gravity, or if the observed radiation arises from a different source (e.g., a neutron star, strange matter or boson star), the spectrum will be inconsistent with that predicted for general relativistic black holes. We give a statistical characterization of the consistency between the noisy observation and the theoretical predictions of general relativity, together with a numerical example.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figure

Risk Adjustment and Outcome Measures for Out-of-hospital Respiratory Distress

: The purpose of the Emergency Medical Services Outcomes Project (EMSOP) is to develop a foundation and framework for out-of-hospital outcomes research. In prior work, this group delineated the priority conditions, described conceptual models, suggested core and risk adjustment measures potentially useful to emergency medical services research, and summarized out-of-hospital pain measurement. In this fifth article in the EMSOP series, the authors recommend specific risk-adjustment measures and outcome measures for use in out-of-hospital research on patients presenting with respiratory distress. The methodology included systematic literature searches and a structured review by an expert panel. The EMSOP group recommends use of pulse oximetry, peak expiratory flow rate, and the visual analog dyspnea scale as potential risk-adjustment measures and outcome measures for out-of-hospital research in patients with respiratory distress. Furthermore, using mortality as an outcome measure is also recommended. Future research is needed to alleviate the paucity of validated tools for out-of-hospital outcomes research.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73779/1/j.aem.2004.03.010.pd

Establishing the Scope and Methodological Approach to Out-of-hospital Outcomes and Effectiveness Research

: Outcomes research offers out-of-hospital medicine a valuable methodology for studying the effectiveness of services provided in the out-of hospital setting. A clear understanding of the history and constructs of outcomes research is necessary for its integration into emergency medical services research. This report describes the conceptual framework of outcomes research and key methodological considerations for the successful implementation of out-of-hospital outcomes research. Illustrations of the specific applications of outcomes research and implications to existing methodologies are given, as well as suggestions for improved interdisciplinary research.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75033/1/j.aem.2004.04.014.pd

Understanding Dwarf Galaxies in order to Understand Dark Matter

Much progress has been made in recent years by the galaxy simulation community in making realistic galaxies, mostly by more accurately capturing the effects of baryons on the structural evolution of dark matter halos at high resolutions. This progress has altered theoretical expectations for galaxy evolution within a Cold Dark Matter (CDM) model, reconciling many earlier discrepancies between theory and observations. Despite this reconciliation, CDM may not be an accurate model for our Universe. Much more work must be done to understand the predictions for galaxy formation within alternative dark matter models.Comment: Refereed contribution to the Proceedings of the Simons Symposium on Illuminating Dark Matter, to be published by Springe

Getting Genetic Ancestry Right for Science and Society

There is a scientific and ethical imperative to embrace a multidimensional, continuous view of ancestry and move away from continental ancestry categorie

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Access to Modern Contraceptives in Uganda

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Over two thirds of women who need contraception in Uganda lack access to modern effective methods. This study was conducted to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of achieving universal access to modern contraceptives in Uganda by implementing a hypothetical new contraceptive program (NCP) from both societal and governmental (Ministry of Health (MoH)) perspectives.</p> <h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>A Markov model was developed to compare the NCP to the status quo or current contraceptive program (CCP). The model followed a hypothetical cohort of 15-year old girls over a lifetime horizon. Data were obtained from the Uganda National Demographic and Health Survey and from published and unpublished sources. Costs, life expectancy, disability-adjusted life expectancy, pregnancies, fertility and incremental cost-effectiveness measured as cost per life-year (LY) gained, cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, cost per pregnancy averted and cost per unit of fertility reduction were calculated. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of results. Mean discounted life expectancy and disability-adjusted life expectancy (DALE) were higher under the NCP vs. CCP (28.74 vs. 28.65 years and 27.38 vs. 27.01 respectively). Mean pregnancies and live births per woman were lower under the NCP (9.51 vs. 7.90 and 6.92 vs. 5.79 respectively). Mean lifetime societal costs per woman were lower for the NCP from the societal perspective ($1,949 vs.$1,987) and the MoH perspective ($636 vs.$685). In the incremental analysis, the NCP dominated the CCP, i.e. it was both less costly and more effective. The results were robust to univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.</p> <h3>Conclusion/Significance</h3><p>Universal access to modern contraceptives in Uganda appears to be highly cost-effective. Increasing contraceptive coverage should be considered among Uganda's public health priorities.</p> </div

Modeling emergency department visit patterns for infectious disease complaints: results and application to disease surveillance

BACKGROUND: Concern over bio-terrorism has led to recognition that traditional public health surveillance for specific conditions is unlikely to provide timely indication of some disease outbreaks, either naturally occurring or induced by a bioweapon. In non-traditional surveillance, the use of health care resources are monitored in "near real" time for the first signs of an outbreak, such as increases in emergency department (ED) visits for respiratory, gastrointestinal or neurological chief complaints (CC). METHODS: We collected ED CCs from 2/1/94 – 5/31/02 as a training set. A first-order model was developed for each of seven CC categories by accounting for long-term, day-of-week, and seasonal effects. We assessed predictive performance on subsequent data from 6/1/02 – 5/31/03, compared CC counts to predictions and confidence limits, and identified anomalies (simulated and real). RESULTS: Each CC category exhibited significant day-of-week differences. For most categories, counts peaked on Monday. There were seasonal cycles in both respiratory and undifferentiated infection complaints and the season-to-season variability in peak date was summarized using a hierarchical model. For example, the average peak date for respiratory complaints was January 22, with a season-to-season standard deviation of 12 days. This season-to-season variation makes it challenging to predict respiratory CCs so we focused our effort and discussion on prediction performance for this difficult category. Total ED visits increased over the study period by 4%, but respiratory complaints decreased by roughly 20%, illustrating that long-term averages in the data set need not reflect future behavior in data subsets. CONCLUSION: We found that ED CCs provided timely indicators for outbreaks. Our approach led to successful identification of a respiratory outbreak one-to-two weeks in advance of reports from the state-wide sentinel flu surveillance and of a reported increase in positive laboratory test results

The quijote simulations

The Quijote simulations are a set of 44,100 full N-body simulations spanning more than 7000 cosmological models in the hyperplane. At a single redshift, the simulations contain more than 8.5 trillion particles over a combined volume of 44,100 each simulation follows the evolution of 2563, 5123, or 10243 particles in a box of 1 h -1 Gpc length. Billions of dark matter halos and cosmic voids have been identified in the simulations, whose runs required more than 35 million core hours. The Quijote simulations have been designed for two main purposes: (1) to quantify the information content on cosmological observables and (2) to provide enough data to train machine-learning algorithms. In this paper, we describe the simulations and show a few of their applications. We also release the petabyte of data generated, comprising hundreds of thousands of simulation snapshots at multiple redshifts; halo and void catalogs; and millions of summary statistics, such as power spectra, bispectra, correlation functions, marked power spectra, and estimated probability density functions

KELT-24b: A 5M_J Planet on a 5.6 day Well-Aligned Orbit around the Young V=8.3 F-star HD 93148

We present the discovery of KELT-24 b, a massive hot Jupiter orbiting a bright (V=8.3 mag, K=7.2 mag) young F-star with a period of 5.6 days. The host star, KELT-24 (HD 93148), has a T_(eff) =6508±49 K, a mass of M∗ = 1.461^(+0.056)_(−0.060) M_⊙, radius of R∗ = 1.506±0.022 R_⊙, and an age of 0.77^(+0.61)_(−0.42) Gyr. Its planetary companion (KELT-24 b) has a radius of R_P = 1.272^(+0.021)_(−0.022) R_J, a mass of MP = 5.18^(+0.21)_(−0.22) M_J, and from Doppler tomographic observations, we find that the planet's orbit is well-aligned to its host star's projected spin axis (λ = 2.6^(+5.1)_(−3.6)). The young age estimated for KELT-24 suggests that it only recently started to evolve from the zero-age main sequence. KELT-24 is the brightest star known to host a transiting giant planet with a period between 5 and 10 days. Although the circularization timescale is much longer than the age of the system, we do not detect a large eccentricity or significant misalignment that is expected from dynamical migration. The brightness of its host star and its moderate surface gravity make KELT-24b an intriguing target for detailed atmospheric characterization through spectroscopic emission measurements since it would bridge the current literature results that have primarily focused on lower mass hot Jupiters and a few brown dwarfs